As Finland prepares for a pivotal presidential election, the nation's political future—and its delicate relationship with neighboring Russia—hangs in the balance. Following the historic decision to join NATO, Finland now finds itself on the frontlines of Western defense, sharing a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia and facing increasing geopolitical tension in the wake of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The upcoming election will determine who will succeed President Sauli Niinistö, a key figure in Finland’s diplomatic pivot westward and a leader widely credited with skillfully navigating relations with Moscow during turbulent times.

The role of the Finnish president, while more symbolic than executive in many domestic matters, holds considerable weight in shaping foreign and security policy. This makes the 2024 election particularly consequential. The next president must not only uphold Finland’s NATO commitments but also guide the nation through an increasingly complex and uncertain international landscape. Niinistö, often referred to as a “Putin whisperer,” used his personal rapport with the Russian president to keep communication channels open while steering Finland toward greater integration with the West. His departure leaves big shoes to fill.

On the streets of Helsinki, the mood is one of cautious optimism mixed with concern. Many citizens want a leader who embodies stability and trust, someone who can defend Finland’s interests while maintaining a calm demeanor. “They need to have a steady presence and a clean record,” said 37-year-old nurse Tommi Vaurio. “This is about trust and reliability.”

The presidential race is already heating up, with several prominent figures vying for the role. Pekka Haavisto, a seasoned diplomat and former foreign minister, currently leads in the polls with 32% support. Known for his calm and strategic nature, Haavisto has long advocated for closer ties with NATO and emphasizes the importance of understanding Russia’s internal politics through intelligence and research. His message resonates with many who see continuity in foreign policy as critical to Finland’s safety and international standing.

Trailing Haavisto is Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister and European lawmaker, with 19% support. Stubb brings a deep understanding of EU politics and a strong pro-Western orientation. Also in the running are Olli Rehn, a former European commissioner with 10% support, and Mika Aaltola, a well-known foreign policy expert polling at 12%. Each candidate presents a nuanced yet generally unified stance on maintaining Finland’s NATO commitments and strengthening its defense posture.

Adding intrigue to the race are some unconventional candidates. Far-right politician Jussi Halla-aho, polling at 9%, has gained support through his fierce rhetoric against Russia and promises of a more assertive national defense. On the other end of the spectrum, the traditionally NATO-skeptical Left Alliance, likely to field its leader Li Andersson (currently polling at 7%), offers a more cautious approach to military alliances, adding ideological diversity to the debate.

Globally, Finland’s election is being watched closely by both European and American leaders. As NATO’s newest frontline state, Finland holds strategic importance in monitoring Russian activities and helping shape broader Western responses. The country’s integration into the alliance has already been hailed as a major shift in Northern European security dynamics, and the next president will be tasked with deepening that integration while preserving Finnish autonomy and interests.

Haavisto has consistently called Finland’s NATO accession “a smart move,” reinforcing its deterrence against Moscow. He insists that active participation in the alliance and investing in regional intelligence efforts are key components of safeguarding Finland’s future. This approach aligns with Niinistö’s legacy, which many voters seem eager to maintain.

Despite constitutional reforms that have reduced the domestic powers of the presidency over the years, the role still carries immense symbolic and diplomatic significance. In Helsinki, reminders of past presidents such as Kaarlo Ståhlberg, who guided Finland to independence, and Gustaf Mannerheim, the revered wartime leader, remain visible in statues, museums, and public discourse—underscoring the lasting impact of strong leadership during pivotal historical moments.

With the campaign now in full swing, candidates are traveling across the country, meeting with voters and outlining their visions for Finland’s role in the world. Haavisto emphasizes direct engagement, saying, “Meeting people and listening to their concerns will be a key part of the campaign.” For many Finns, the priority is clear: continuity, strength, and a steady hand in international affairs. As the nation prepares to cast its votes, the outcome will not only determine Finland’s next head of state but also help shape the security of the entire Nordic region.